The Threat of China is Real

For many decades, India has faced many issues because of the expansionist policies of China. In fact, China has border disputes with almost all its neighboring countries and territorial disputes with eight other countries. This list does not include the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, which China keeps on its payroll. Not just territorial disputes,  on several occasions China has claimed entire countries of North Korea, South Korea, Nepal, Tibet, Taiwan, Tajikistan and many others to be its own land based on historical precedent. Though these claims might sound absurd, one cannot simple ignore them due to the expansionist and imperialist policies of China. With the Sikkim impasse and war of words between India and China, we should realize that both the countries are edging closer to war that neither can back down from. Barring a few isolated voices of caution, there seems to a benign assumption in the commentarial and the Indian media that China will not risk a war over the Dokhlam standoff, where China was surprised by India’s unexpected decision to stare it down.Image result for doklam standoff Unlike democracies, which worry about economic losses in the pursuit of geopolitical and military power, China always seems willing to endanger short-term economic gains in the pursuit of long-term military supremacy. Therefore, it is for the best that India accelerates it preparations for a full-scale war against China.

The Indian information technology and telecommunications networks are expanding rapidly. Both in private as well as public sectors. E-governance programs, communication grids and the explosion of cellular and financial services need millions of devices such as routers, switches, automated teller machines and point of sale units. All organizations, especially the public sector are understandably cost-conscious and look at the most economically efficient set of products while awarding such turnkey projects. Turns out that devices made in China win hands down on price. Thinking from China’s point of view, here is an opportunity to seed the entire Indian electronic, tele communications and Internet grid with devices made by state funded and run companies- devices that are essentially black boxes to Indian buyers. Devices that can have Trojans coded into them so that they could be controlled or shut down at will by a secret command. So, if all they have to do is make sure that their devices are the lowest in price, which they can by spending a few hundred crore rupees, wouldn’t that be a brilliant return on investment?

After facing humiliating defeats in the 1965 and 1971 wars, Pakistan recognized the futility of military misadventures against India. As a result, Pakistan adopted this new strategy called as proxy wars. Proxy war is a war where the Pakistan government does not get involved in direct conflict with India. It funds the terrorists, arms them and they in turn carry innumerable small-scale attacks on the army as well as the people. This concept of war is also known as bleed to death by a 1000 cuts. As there is no modus operandi for these terrorist organizations, it is quite difficult to put an end to this menace. Reports suggest that even China might be launching a proxy war against India in the North East region.Image result for proxy war in northeast india A few leaked IB documents suggest that China might secretly be funding the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFAv) to launch attacks against the Indian army. One of the primary reasons of using proxy wars instead of full-scale wars is the amount of damage it does to the enemy compared to one’s own loss. Back in 1962, neither India nor China had any nuclear warheads. Now, things are different. A full-scale war between the two countries might lead to a nuclear war and cause irreparable damage to the planet.

China has 11 trillion dollar economy while India’s economy is around 3 trillion. In the last 3 decades, China has become the manufacturing hub of the world. It is the world’s number one exporter and number three importer. India is one of the largest importers from China. Any problem in the Chinese economy will directly affect the Indian economy.Image result for china india trade deficit Indian economy is also a dependent economy unlike China. Any crisis in European or American economy will affect the Indian economy directly. As the Chinese economy is a less dependent economy, the government can take bold decisions, which can help the country pass through any critical situations such as sanctions against it in case of a war.Back in October, the Financial Times wrote that China’s outbound investment will soon surpass the amount invested inside the country , marking a new step in the rise of this new economic power.Not only China is on the verge of becoming a net exporter of capital, it has already over taken its Western counterparts as a primary source of credit for the developing world. And from this financial prominence it will likely want to exercise political influence, too. In this case corner India diplomatically or economically.

India for the past few years has been boasting as the IT hub of the world. Information Technology contributes a significant percentage to the Indian GDP. This was possible because India has the highest number of engineers and English speakers in the world. The paranoid mentality of the Chinese has always kept them away from learning English. However, after looking at the potential of the global IT industry, China rapidly increased its push to increase English learning and now has started producing English-speaking engineers. Researchers suggest that the Chinese expect a pay that is only two thirds of what is being payed to the Indian engineers and the efficiency is higher comparatively. Given a choice, the Chinese will be the obvious preference for the multinational companies. Considering all these factors, it is evident that China is a threat to the Indian IT industry.

Talking about Chinese threat to India, one of the biggest geopolitical strategy China has employed to keep a tab of affairs that go on in the Indian Ocean is the “String of pearls”. Image result for string of pearlsIt refers to the network of Chinese military and commercial facilities and relationships along its sea lines of communication, which extend from the Chinese mainland to Port Sudan. The emergence of the String of Pearls is indicative of China’s growing geopolitical influence through concerted efforts to increase access to ports and airfields, expand and modernize military forces, and foster stronger diplomatic relationships with trading partners. Although China claims it to be only for commercial purposes, there are reports that suggest that the string of pearls is strategy to surround India on all sides. India too is working on a strategy to counter the string of pearls by having commercial ports and military establishments around the string of pearls. India is under constant threat from China. If India wants to be at par with China, it needs to upgrade its military force and work for a stronger economy.

 

 

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